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The 2024 NFL season kickoff is finally here after 207 days since Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers for the franchise’s fourth title in a 25-22 overtime thriller in Super Bowl LVIII. A new season means a fresh start for all 32 teams and the journey to the football mountain top begins. The 2024-2025 season also brings about new questions and narratives regarding players, coaches, and organizations that will be filled with answers and opinions fueled by wins, losses, and overall performance. In addition to soaking in the NFL’s return and rooting for my hometown up and coming Chicago Bears, I will be diving deep into the analytics and giving you all my picks for every primetime game this season. Stick with me every Thursday, Sunday, and Monday as we enjoy every game and make a little money along the way.
Thursday Night Football Week 1: Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3) O/U 47
We open this season with two of football’s best and brightest. Reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens head to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the defending back-to-back champions, the Kanas City Chiefs. These two Super Bowl hopeful rosters both look to start the year with a hard-fought W. Let’s get to the picks.
Chiefs -3 (-102)
Patrick Mahomes is such a gifted thrower of the football, and he has proven that he does not need a top tier receiving core to get the job done. Make no mistake as I am not saying these Chiefs weapons cannot be a very good core, but there are questions.
Is the 34-year-old Travis Kelce going to show regression? How prepared is Rashee Rice given his rocky offseason? Will Xavier Worthy live up to the young Tyreek Hill comp I think he can be? Not to mention, we do not get Hollywood Brown in this matchup. Despite all the concerns, I love the idea of Any Reid sitting at his desk for weeks and weeks game planning for these Ravens.
On the other side, I do not think the Raven’s receiving core of Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor is enough to test that Kansas City defense. No L’Jarius Sneed? No problem. I refuse to overthink this. Chiefs by a field goal at home? Book it. You can get them at -2.5 at (-120) which is what I took. I’ll take giving up a little juice to avoid a push.
Derrick Henry Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
This first game will be very telling of what kind of King Henry we will be getting this year. While I am certain the touches he gets will decrease from his Tennessee days due to sharing carries with the most dynamic duel-threat quarterback of all time, 64.5 is too low to not take one of the best running backs since he came into the league.
I have some concerns about the right side of their offensive line, but that has never really stopped Henry before. I expect a little extra burst from him due to being on a contending team for the first time in his career.
Isiah Pacheco Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115) / Over 78.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
Pacheco had a very strong sophomore campaign with 935 Rushing Yards and 9 Total Touchdowns. I am predicting and even better year three. Jerrick McKinnon who took a good deal of touches from Pacheco is now a free agent and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out for at least the first four games of the year.
The three of them formed a very solid running back committee which has now been replaced with rookie Carson Steele and Samaje Perine. Despite having the better supporting cast last year, he hit this rush yard line and rush + receiving line in 11 out of 18 total games. Look for the 25-year-old back to start 2024 out hot.
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